Hamden High Class of 1973 - Mortality Table

Some of you might think this is rather morbid, but there are mortality tables that measure all kinds of death rates, either by sex, race, smoker/non smoker, etc. If this kind of stuff disturbs you, then read no further; otherwise read on.

One of the more generic mortality tables is named GAM83. The logic behind this mortality table is that there are one million people alive who are age 20 and they will all be dead by age 110. Beginning with those one million people at age 20, how many will still be alive at 21, 22, 50, 80, etc? The table below answers those questions and it is astonishingly accurate. Insurance actuaries haven't spent many moons calculating these numbers for nothing.

The columns for one million people have been duplicated for a population of 700, the approximate size of our class. According to the table, by age 48, 21.6 of our classmates should have perished. In reality, there have been 18 known deaths. The table also estimated that 2.13 classmates would have died in 2003 and, in fact, two people died--Ray Ferraro and Dhyanti Taraket. According to the table, half of us will be gone by age 79. On the bright side, it isnít until weíre 108 that we are more likely not to survive into the next year. Even at age 90, we have an 83% (5 out of 6) chance of making it to 91, and it isnít until we reach age 60 that we have less than a 99% chance of making it to the next year.

GAM83 MORTALITY TABLE
One Million People 700 People  
Age People living at Start of Year Deaths this year People living at End of Year Deaths in the last year of 700 Total Deaths of 700 Class-mates alive at end of year Odds of Living that Entire Year
20 1,000,000 377 999,623 0.2639 0.2639 699.7361 0.99962300
21 999,623 392 999,231 0.2744 0.5383 699.4617 0.99960785
22 999,231 408 998,823 0.2856 0.8239 699.1761 0.99959169
23 998,823 424 998,399 0.2968 1.1207 698.8793 0.99957550
24 998,399 443 997,956 0.3101 1.4308 698.5692 0.99955629
25 997,956 463 997,493 0.3241 1.7549 698.2451 0.99953605
26 997,493 487 997,006 0.3409 2.0958 697.9042 0.99951178
27 997,006 511 996,495 0.3577 2.4535 697.5465 0.99948747
28 996,495 540 995,955 0.3780 2.8315 697.1685 0.99945810
29 995,955 570 995,385 0.3990 3.2305 696.7695 0.99942768
30 995,385 604 994,781 0.4228 3.6533 696.3467 0.99939320
31 994,781 642 994,139 0.4494 4.1027 695.8973 0.99935463
32 994,139 683 993,456 0.4781 4.5808 695.4192 0.99931297
33 993,456 729 992,727 0.5103 5.0911 694.9089 0.99926620
34 992,727 779 991,948 0.5453 5.6364 694.3636 0.99921529
35 991,948 853 991,095 0.5971 6.2335 693.7665 0.99914008
36 991,095 899 990,196 0.6293 6.8628 693.1372 0.99909292
37 990,196 957 989,239 0.6699 7.5327 692.4673 0.99903352
38 989,239 1028 988,211 0.7196 8.2523 691.7477 0.99896082
39 988,211 1115 987,096 0.7805 9.0328 690.9672 0.99887170
40 987,096 1222 985,874 0.8554 9.8882 690.1118 0.99876203
41 985,874 1351 984,523 0.9457 10.8339 689.1661 0.99862964
42 984,523 1503 983,020 1.0521 11.8860 688.1140 0.99847337
43 983,020 1686 981,334 1.1802 13.0662 686.9338 0.99828488
44 981,334 1896 979,438 1.3272 14.3934 685.6066 0.99806794
45 979,438 2138 977,300 1.4966 15.8900 684.1100 0.99781712
46 977,300 2415 974,885 1.6905 17.5805 682.4195 0.99752891
47 974,885 2720 972,165 1.9040 19.4845 680.5155 0.99720993
48 972,165 3051 969,114 2.1357 21.6202 678.3798 0.99686164
49 969,114 3404 965,710 2.3828 24.0030 675.9970 0.99648751
50 965,710 3775 961,935 2.6425 26.6455 673.3545 0.99609096
51 961,935 4159 957,776 2.9113 29.5568 670.4432 0.99567642
52 957,776 4554 953,222 3.1878 32.7446 667.2554 0.99524523
53 953,222 4957 948,265 3.4699 36.2145 663.7855 0.99479974
54 948,265 5367 942,898 3.7569 39.9714 660.0286 0.99434019
55 942,898 5781 937,117 4.0467 44.0181 655.9819 0.99386890
56 937,117 6202 930,915 4.3414 48.3595 651.6405 0.99338183
57 930,915 6646 924,269 4.6522 53.0117 646.9883 0.99286079
58 924,269 7134 917,135 4.9938 58.0055 641.9945 0.99228147
59 917,135 7689 909,446 5.3823 63.3878 636.6122 0.99161628
60 909,446 8329 901,117 5.8303 69.2181 630.7819 0.99084168
61 901,117 9069 892,048 6.3483 75.5664 624.4336 0.98993582
62 892,048 9931 882,117 6.9517 82.5181 617.4819 0.98886719
63 882,117 10,930 871,187 7.6510 90.1691 609.8309 0.98760935
64 871,187 12,082 859,105 8.4574 98.6265 601.3735 0.98613157
65 859,105 13,395 845,710 9.3765 108.0030 591.9970 0.98440819
66 845,710 14,867 830,843 10.4069 118.4099 581.5901 0.98242069
67 830,843 16,454 814,389 11.5178 129.9277 570.0723 0.98019602
68 814,389 18,103 796,286 12.6721 142.5998 557.4002 0.97777107
69 796,286 19,761 776,525 13.8327 156.4325 543.5675 0.97518354
70 776,525 21,378 755,147 14.9646 171.3971 528.6029 0.97246966
71 755,147 22,922 732,225 16.0454 187.4425 512.5575 0.96964565
72 732,225 24,434 707,791 17.1038 204.5463 495.4537 0.96663048
73 707,791 25,962 681,829 18.1734 222.7197 477.2803 0.96331968
74 681,829 27,538 654,291 19.2766 241.9963 458.0037 0.95961157
75 654,291 29,179 625,112 20.4253 262.4216 437.5784 0.95540364
76 625,112 30,873 594,239 21.6111 284.0327 415.9673 0.95061205
77 594,239 32,539 561,700 22.7773 306.8100 393.1900 0.94524257
78 561,700 34,083 527,617 23.8581 330.6681 369.3319 0.93932170
79 527,617 35,416 492,201 24.7912 355.4593 344.5407 0.93287555
80 492,201 36,457 455,744 25.5199 380.9792 319.0208 0.92593067
81 455,744 37,136 418,608 25.9952 406.9744 293.0256 0.91851566
82 418,608 37,390 381,218 26.1730 433.1474 266.8526 0.91068016
83 381,218 37,178 344,040 26.0246 459.1720 240.8280 0.90247575
84 344,040 36,484 307,556 25.5388 484.7108 215.2892 0.89395419
85 307,556 35,319 272,237 24.7233 509.4341 190.5659 0.88516238
86 272,237 33,804 238,433 23.6628 533.0969 166.9031 0.87582878
87 238,433 31,919 206,514 22.3433 555.4402 144.5598 0.86613011
88 206,514 29,753 176,761 20.8271 576.2673 123.7327 0.85592744
89 176,761 27,373 149,388 19.1611 595.4284 104.5716 0.84514118
90 149,388 24,844 124,544 17.3908 612.8192 87.1808 0.83369481
91 124,544 22,195 102,349 15.5365 628.3557 71.6443 0.82178989
92 102,349 19,493 82,856 13.6451 642.0008 57.9992 0.80954382
93 82,856 16,820 66,036 11.7740 653.7748 46.2252 0.79699720
94 66,036 14,390 51,646 10.0730 663.8478 36.1522 0.78208856
95 51,646 12,090 39,556 8.4630 672.3108 27.6892 0.76590636
96 39,556 9827 29,729 6.8789 679.1897 20.8103 0.75156740
97 29,729 7847 21,882 5.4929 684.6826 15.3174 0.73604898
98 21,882 6145 15,737 4.3015 688.9841 11.0159 0.71917558
99 15,737 4708 11,029 3.2956 692.2797 7.7203 0.70083243
100 11029 3520 7509 2.4640 694.7437 5.2563 0.68084142
101 7509 2561 4948 1.7927 696.5364 3.4636 0.65894260
102 4948 1806 3142 1.2642 697.8006 2.1994 0.63500404
103 3142 1235 1907 0.8645 698.6651 1.3349 0.60693826
104 1907 815 1092 0.5705 699.2356 0.7644 0.57262716
105 1092 513 579 0.3591 699.5947 0.4053 0.53021978
106 579 302 277 0.2114 699.8061 0.1939 0.47841105
107 277 162 115 0.1134 699.9195 0.0805 0.41516245
108 115 77 38 0.0539 699.9734 0.0266 0.33043478
109 38 29 9 0.0203 699.9937 0.0063 0.23684211
110 9 9 0 0.0063 700.0000 0.0000 0.00000000

Total

1000000

700